Digging Art

The IMF has given Sri Lanka a $2.9 billion IMF bailout. This will help the country recover from its worst money crisis in 70 years. The approval allows for an initial release of about $337 million.

Sri Lanka’s economy shows signs of recovery under the IMF program. Yet, it remains at risk. Achieving debt stability is still a tough challenge.

The bailout is crucial for managing Sri Lanka’s financial crisis. It will also help implement economic reforms. The funds will be provided in stages over four years.

Sri Lanka aims to restructure its $83.6 billion debt. This includes $41.5 billion in foreign debt and $42 billion in domestic debt. The country plans talks with the Paris Club, India, and China before meeting private creditors.

Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis and Need for IMF Assistance

Sri Lanka faces its worst financial crisis in recent history. Foreign exchange reserves hit record lows in 2022, leading to a default on its external debt. The economy shrank by 7.8% last year, causing severe shortages of essential goods.

Factors Contributing to Sri Lanka’s Financial Collapse

Several factors led to Sri Lanka’s financial collapse. These include a drop in foreign exchange reserves and heavy reliance on imports. The COVID-19 pandemic also caused a sharp decline in tourism revenue.

Sri Lanka’s debt burden is a major concern. External debt will reach USD 37.5 billion by June 2024, as noted in debt restructuring talks. Government efforts to address the crisis have sparked social unrest.

Inflation soared above 70%, while the Sri Lankan rupee hit record lows. These factors worsened the country’s economic troubles.

Impact of the Crisis on Sri Lankan Citizens

The economic contraction and shortages have deeply affected Sri Lankan citizens. Many struggle to afford basic necessities. Rising costs have pushed more people into poverty.

The crisis has also led to widespread job losses and business closures. These factors have added to the hardships faced by the population.

Year	Economic Growth	Inflation
2022	-7.8%	70%
2023 (projected)	-3.0%	25%

Sri Lanka has turned to the IMF program for help. The government has made tough spending cuts and raised taxes. These actions aim to secure a bailout and set the stage for recovery.

IMF Approves $2.9 Billion Bailout to Stabilize Sri Lankan Economy

The IMF has approved a $2.9 billion bailout package for Sri Lanka. This aims to stabilize the nation’s economy during its worst financial crisis in decades. The 48-month loan program tackles pressing economic challenges like soaring inflation and currency depreciation.

Key Elements of the IMF Bailout Package

The bailout focuses on restoring fiscal sustainability and implementing tax reforms. It also aims to enhance social spending to protect vulnerable citizens. The program targets a fiscal surplus of 2.3% of GDP by 2024.

This is a significant improvement from the projected 2022 deficit of 9.8%. The IMF stresses the importance of energy pricing reforms. It also emphasizes strengthening the central bank’s autonomy for data-driven monetary policy.

Conditions Attached to the IMF Assistance

Sri Lanka must secure financing assurances from major bilateral creditors like China, India, and Japan. This ensures debt restructuring and sustainability. The government has committed to implementing an anti-corruption legal framework.

They also aim to improve transparency in tax exemptions. These measures are crucial for restoring fiscal sustainability. They will also help attract private investments back into the country.

Expected Timeline for Disbursement of Funds

The IMF board approved the bailout on March 20. Sri Lanka is set to receive the first tranche of funds soon. As of June 2023, the IMF approved the second review of the bailout.

This brings the total funding to around $1 billion. Successful implementation of reforms could lead to additional funding. It may also attract support from international partners.

Key Economic Indicators	2022	2023 (Projected)
GDP Growth	-7.3%	-8.7%
Inflation Rate	70%	60%+
External Debt	$50 billion+	–

Reforms and Austerity Measures Required by the IMF

Sri Lanka must implement various fiscal reforms to secure the $2.9 billion IMF bailout approved in 2023. These measures aim to address the country’s economic crisis. In 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on $46 billion in foreign debt, causing shortages of essential goods.

Tax and Energy Pricing Reforms

The IMF requires raising taxes, such as increasing the value-added tax from 12% to 15%. The government must also reform energy pricing to align with market rates.

The goal is to boost revenue collection to 15% of GDP by 2025. Currently, it stands at 8%, among the lowest worldwide.

Efforts to Bolster Social Spending and Relief Programs

While implementing austerity measures, Sri Lanka must protect its most vulnerable citizens. The government needs to strengthen social spending and relief programs.

This is vital because the country’s poverty rate has doubled, according to the World Bank. Real wages remain significantly below pre-crisis levels.

Year	Inflation Rate	Debt-to-GDP Ratio
2022	60%	128%
2023	–	–
2028 (projected)	–	100%

Strengthening Anti-Corruption Legal Framework

Sri Lanka must bolster its anti-corruption legal framework to improve governance and transparency. This is crucial for effective implementation of IMF-mandated reforms.

Strengthening anti-corruption measures will help restore public trust in the government’s economic management abilities.

Conclusion

The IMF’s $2.9 billion bailout for Sri Lanka is a crucial step towards economic stability. This 48-month Extended Fund Facility aims to support Sri Lanka’s policies and reforms. It helps the nation recover from its worst financial crisis since independence.

The IMF assistance aims to restore financial stability and promote sustainable growth. It also protects vulnerable citizens. Success depends on effective reforms, international support, and political stability.

Sri Lanka has made progress, with inflation decreasing from 70% to below 2%. Gross international reserves have increased by $1.5 billion. However, revenue gains are falling short of initial projections by almost 15%.

Sustained efforts are needed to meet the IMF’s bailout terms. These include a ban on printing money and specific revenue targets. Sri Lanka must finalize its $41 billion external debt restructuring by mid-September.

The nation must stay committed to reform and sustainable growth. With international support and dedication, Sri Lanka can overcome challenges. This will help build a brighter future for its citizens.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has raised key policy interest rates to fight inflation. This move aims to support economic recovery and align with IMF negotiations. The CBSL increased the SDFR and SLFR by 100 basis points each.

This rate hike addresses Sri Lanka’s high inflation, which peaked in September 2022. The economy shrank by 9.2% last year, with inflation hitting 50% in February. The central bank had already raised rates by 950 basis points in 2022.

The CBSL’s decision aligns with IMF staff recommendations. It’s a key step towards securing the $2.9 billion IMF bailout package. Sri Lanka is restructuring its debt before IMF funds can be released.

The country seeks approval under a special Lending Into Official Arrears policy. India and the Paris Club of creditors have offered their support in this process.

These changes aim to reduce the gap between policy and market interest rates. The CBSL expects single-digit inflation by late 2023. They also anticipate a continued decrease in market interest rates.

Stable monetary policies are crucial for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. They support long-term growth and reinforce the importance of price stability. These measures are essential for sustained economic development in the country.

Central Bank Raises Interest Rates to Combat Soaring Inflation

Sri Lanka’s Central Bank has raised policy interest rates to tackle rising inflation. This action aligns with IMF negotiations and the Extended Fund Facility arrangement. The goal is to reduce the gap between policy and market interest rates.

This move aims to ease pressure on consumer spending and the overall economy. It’s a crucial step towards economic stability and growth.

Monetary Board Decision to Raise Policy Interest Rates

The Central Bank’s Monetary Board agreed with IMF staff to increase policy interest rates. The raise was smaller than initially planned during negotiations. This decision helps fulfill ‘prior actions’ needed for the IMF Extended Fund Facility arrangement.

Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) Increased

The Monetary Board increased the Standing Deposit Facility Rate to 15.50%. They also raised the Standing Lending Facility Rate to 16.50%. These changes took effect from March 3, 2023.

This decision shows the Central Bank’s commitment to fighting inflation and stabilizing the economy. It’s a significant step towards financial stability.

Policy Rate	Previous Rate	New Rate (Effective 03 March 2023)
Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR)	14.50%	15.50%
Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR)	15.50%	16.50%

Impact on Lending Rates and Cost of Borrowing

The policy interest rate increase will affect lending rates and borrowing costs in Sri Lanka. Higher rates may reduce consumer spending and investment as borrowing becomes pricier.

However, this measure is crucial to control inflation and prevent future economic instability. It’s a necessary step towards long-term financial health.

Reasons Behind the Interest Rate Hike

Sri Lanka raised interest rates to support its IMF-EFF arrangement. This move aims to boost economic stability and attract foreign exchange. It’s part of ongoing talks with the IMF to tackle economic challenges.

The Monetary Board expects this hike to close the gap between policy and market rates. As Sri Lanka restructures its debt, this gap should shrink further. This will create a more stable financial environment for growth.

Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Sri Lanka is working closely with the IMF for economic recovery. The IMF’s support is crucial for addressing current challenges. Their involvement will guide economic reforms and debt restructuring for long-term stability.

Commitment to the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement

The interest rate hike shows Sri Lanka’s dedication to the IMF-EFF plan. This plan outlines steps for economic recovery. Following this arrangement aims to restore confidence and attract foreign investment.

Aim to Lower the Spread Between Policy Interest Rates and High Market Interest Rates

Raising interest rates should help align policy and market rates. This alignment is key for financial stability. As debt restructuring progresses, the rate spread should narrow further.

Conclusion

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s interest rate hike aims to ensure price and economic stability. This decision aligns with the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement. It’s a crucial step towards normalizing the interest rate structure and combating inflation.

The rate increase is expected to quickly slow down inflation. Similar actions by central banks worldwide have shown positive results. The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have also raised rates to address rising prices.

Rising rates may challenge emerging economies’ financial stability and capital inflows. However, Sri Lanka remains committed to overcoming these obstacles. The country’s focus on stability aims to create a growth-friendly environment.

The recent surge in Sri Lanka’s agricultural exports shows the nation’s resilience. This growth potential supports the country’s economic recovery efforts.

Sri Lanka’s proactive approach to economic challenges is clear. The Central Bank’s actions and commitment to the IMF arrangement demonstrate this. These efforts position the country well for sustainable growth and a prosperous future.

Sri Lanka faces its worst economic collapse since 1948. The country’s financial woes have led to sky-high inflation and depleted foreign reserves. Essential goods are scarce, and basic commodity prices have soared.

The crisis has sparked nationwide protests and resulted in Sri Lanka’s first sovereign debt default. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe admitted in parliament that the economy had collapsed.

Political turmoil and poor economic choices have worsened the situation. The Sri Lankan Rupee hit a record low of LKR 368.50 against the US dollar in November 2022.

This represents a 555% annual depreciation. By May 24, 2023, the currency had improved to LKR 305.00. However, economic recovery remains a distant goal.

The country’s heavy reliance on foreign debt and dwindling reserves have contributed to the crisis. Policy missteps have also played a role. These factors have left Sri Lankans bearing the brunt of economic hardship.

Background of Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis

Sri Lanka’s economic crisis has been brewing for over a decade. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio has been rising since 2010. Foreign debt skyrocketed from $11.3 billion in 2005 to $56.3 billion in 2020.

The debt as a percentage of GDP jumped from 42% in 2019 to 119% in 2021. This massive debt, along with policy confusion and political turmoil, led to economic collapse.

The Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka warned about economic risks in 2014. However, the government ignored these economic warnings. Political chaos in 2018 made things worse.

A new government in 2019 scrapped the Central Bank Bill. This bill aimed to free the bank from political meddling and stop money printing.

Mounting Debt and Dwindling Reserves

Sri Lanka’s foreign currency reserves have fallen drastically. They dropped from $7.6 billion in late 2019 to $250 million in early 2022. The country owes $7 billion to China and $1 billion to India.

Sri Lanka faces a yearly deficit of $3 billion due to import-export imbalance. This has made it hard for the country to pay its debts.

Year	Foreign Debt (US$ billion)	Foreign Debt as % of GDP
2005	11.3	–
2019	–	42%
2020	56.3	–
2021	–	119%

In 2019, the government slashed taxes, losing $1.4 billion in yearly revenue. This put more strain on the country’s finances. Sri Lanka’s external debt kept growing, with $8.6 billion due in 2022.

These factors pushed Sri Lanka to the edge of bankruptcy. The country now faces a severe economic crisis.

Causes of Sri Lanka’s Economic Collapse

Sri Lanka’s economy crumbled in 2022 due to several factors. Large tax cuts, excessive money printing, and growing foreign debt were key issues. The Gotabaya Rajapaksa government’s tax cuts slashed revenue and worsened fiscal policies.

To cover spending, the Central Bank printed money at record levels. This ignored advice from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The excess cash led to higher purchasing power and import demand.

As a result, the balance of payments deficit grew. The gap was filled with costly loans from international commercial markets.

Sri Lanka’s Foreign Debt Burden

Sri Lanka’s foreign debt skyrocketed from $11.3 billion in 2005 to $56.3 billion in 2020. It rose from 42% of GDP in 2019 to 119% in 2021. By 2024, external debt reached $37,040 million, 43% of GDP.

The mounting debt and dwindling foreign reserves led to a crisis. In April 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on its foreign debt obligations.

Year	Foreign Debt (USD Billion)	Foreign Debt as % of GDP
2005	11.3	–
2019	–	42%
2020	56.3	–
2021	–	119%
2024	37.04	43%

Credit Rating Downgrade

The economic crisis led to a downgrade in Sri Lanka’s credit rating. International agencies lowered it to default grade. This made it harder for the country to borrow more money.

The credit downgrade worsened Sri Lanka’s economic troubles. It limited access to global financial markets and increased borrowing costs.

These issues played a major role in Sri Lanka’s 2022 economic collapse. Addressing these problems and implementing reforms is crucial for recovery and future stability.

Sri Lanka Declares Bankruptcy Amidst Severe Economic Crisis in 2022

In 2022, Sri Lanka faced a dire financial situation. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe declared the country “bankrupt” during an unprecedented economic crisis. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves dropped to $2.31 billion by February.

Sri Lanka owed around $4 billion in debt repayments that year. This included a $1 billion international sovereign bond due in July. The country struggled to meet these obligations.

Foreign reserve depletion left Sri Lanka with less than a day’s worth of fuel. Schools suspended operations, and citizens faced severe fuel shortages. Food insecurity became widespread due to the economic collapse.

Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt for the first time since 1948. The country spent 9.2% of its GDP on foreign debt payments in 2022 alone.

Inability to Pay Foreign Debt Obligations

Sri Lanka’s total debt burden reached $51 billion. The nation owed about $29 billion from July 2021 to 2026. It couldn’t meet debt repayments, including a $78 million coupon payment on two bonds.

Prime Minister Acknowledges Economic Collapse

Wickremesinghe’s bankruptcy statement highlighted challenges in IMF negotiations. Sri Lanka entered talks as a bankrupt nation, not a developing one. This made economic recovery uncertain and difficult.

The crisis deeply affected Sri Lanka’s 21.8 million people. The UN reported that four out of five people now skip meals. Sri Lanka has South Asia’s second-highest child malnutrition rate, after Afghanistan.

Conclusion

Sri Lanka’s financial crisis stems from years of economic mismanagement, excessive debt, and global crises. The country’s GDP shrunk by 7.1% in 2022’s first three quarters. Inflation peaked at 70% in September 2022 but dropped to 54% by January 2023.

The government seeks IMF and international aid to tackle the crisis. Sri Lanka owes $51 billion externally, with 13 banks on rating watch negative. It’s among the world’s biggest loan defaulters, making the IMF bailout crucial.

The UN warns of a looming humanitarian crisis in Sri Lanka. About 500,000 more people now depend on aid. The country faces severe shortages of essentials like food, fuel, and medicine.

The financial crisis has pushed many into poverty. Predictions suggest a 10.9 percent poverty rate by 2021, equal to $3.20 per day.

Sri Lanka must prioritize its citizens’ well-being and address the crisis’s root causes. This includes reforms, improving transparency, and working with international partners. Only then can Sri Lanka build a more stable and prosperous future.

The World Bank has approved a $1 billion loan for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. This aid package will support debt restructuring and promote key economic reforms. It aims to help the country overcome its severe financial crisis.

Sri Lanka has been facing its worst economic crisis since independence. The funds will help create a fair economy. They will also protect vulnerable groups during recovery.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake took office last month amid public unrest. He has promised to stabilize the economy and ease citizens’ hardships. The World Bank’s assistance is crucial in supporting these efforts.

World Bank Approves $200 Million Loan to Support Sri Lanka’s Economic Reforms

The World Bank has approved a new $200 million loan to support Sri Lanka’s economic reforms. This follows the country’s worst financial crisis in recent history. The loan adds to an earlier $500 million provided after the 2022 economic crash.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake welcomed the new loan. He said it would help create a fair economy for all Sri Lankans. The funds will support reforms to boost growth and build resilience.

New Loan Follows Earlier $500 Million World Bank Loan After 2022 Economic Crash

The latest loan adds to the $500 million given after Sri Lanka’s 2022 crisis. During this time, the country defaulted on its external debt. The total $700 million in loans aim to stabilize the economy and support reforms.

Loan to Help Foster an Equitable Economy and Protect the Vulnerable

The new loan focuses on building a fairer economy for all. It includes measures to strengthen social safety nets. This will help protect those hit hardest by the economic downturn.

Loan Amount	Purpose
$200 million	Support economic reforms, foster equitable growth
$500 million	Immediate support after 2022 economic crash

With this World Bank support, Sri Lanka aims to boost its economic recovery. The country plans to implement needed reforms and build a stable economy. The path ahead is tough, but these loans offer hope for a stronger future.

Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis and Road to Recovery

Sri Lanka faced a severe economic meltdown in 2022. It led to the country’s first external debt default amid its worst financial crisis. The economy shrank by about 8%, with food inflation soaring over 90%.

Authorities reported an inflation rate of around 50%. This showed a reduction but still indicated significant economic strain on consumers. Months of protests over shortages of essentials led to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ouster.

The World Food Programme reported that one-third of Sri Lankan families faced food insecurity. The government raised electricity tariffs by 75% in August 2022 and 66% in February 2023. These measures aimed to address the ongoing crisis.

New President Anura Kumara Dissanayake Elected on Platform of Reversing Tax Hikes and Raising Public Sector Wages

Leftist President Anura Kumara Dissanayake won the election due to public resentment. He promised to reverse steep tax hikes and raise public servant salaries. He also pledged to renegotiate an unpopular $2.9 billion IMF bailout.

Despite these efforts, poverty has increased for four straight years. Industrial indicators remain weak. Cement consumption is low, and favorable base effects driving disinflation are fading. Housing, utilities, and fuel are the main drivers of headline inflation.

Economic Indicator	Status
Growth	Turned positive in H2 2023
Yield Curve	Inverted yield curve normalized somewhat in early 2024
Private Sector Credit	Expanded due to reduction in interest rates
Tourism	Remains below pre-COVID levels
Rupee	Gradually appreciating
Net Foreign Assets	Improving in the banking system
Primary Balance	Surplus achieved through new revenue measures and curtailed expenditure
Domestic Interest Payments	Risen sharply
Labor Force Participation	Continues to worsen in urban areas
Household Debt	Increasing to meet daily food requirements

Sri Lanka secured a $3 billion loan from the IMF over four years. This marks the country’s 17th deal with the IMF since 1965. The loan approval includes conditions to address corruption and support economic stability.

Sri Lanka Secures $1 Billion Loan from World Bank for Economic Recovery

Sri Lanka has secured $1 billion in World Bank assistance to support its economic recovery efforts. The loans aim to facilitate crucial policy reforms and foster economic stabilization. This financial boost comes after the 2022 crisis.

The World Bank’s package includes a recent $200 million loan. This follows an earlier $500 million loan provided after the 2022 economic crash. These funds will help Sri Lanka implement reforms and protect vulnerable populations.

Sri Lanka has shown signs of economic recovery in 2023. The country’s real GDP grew by 1.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter. This marks the first expansion in six quarters.

Inflation eased to 4% in December 2023 from 51.7% in January. Foreign reserves increased to $4.4 billion at the end of 2023. This is up from $1.9 billion in December 2022.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has also committed substantial support to Sri Lanka. They’ve provided $11.8 billion in loans, grants, and technical assistance.

Economic Indicator	2022	2023
GDP Growth	-7.8%	-2.3%
Inflation (December)	–	4%
Foreign Reserves (December)	$1.9 billion	$4.4 billion
Poverty Rate	25%	–

The World Bank’s support is vital for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. It focuses on key policy reforms and economic stability. The country aims to build a more resilient and fair economy for its citizens.

Conclusion

The World Bank’s $1 billion loan approval is a game-changer for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. This support is crucial as the country works to stabilize finances and restructure debt. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake leads the implementation of growth-oriented policies.

Sri Lanka’s economic outlook shows promising signs. Foreign currency reserves have reached $2.69 billion, increasing 23.5% from September 2022 to February 2023. However, challenges remain with a high debt-to-GDP ratio and the aftermath of sovereign debt default in 2022.

The new government’s reform agenda aims to create an equitable economy and protect vulnerable populations. These measures are vital for addressing challenges and promoting sustainable growth. Education reforms focusing on digitization and modernization will boost long-term development.

Continued support from the World Bank and other partners is essential for Sri Lanka’s recovery. The country must balance reforms with public concerns, especially after recent protests. Transparent governance and inclusive growth are key to ensuring a brighter future for all Sri Lankans.

The Sri Lankan stock market bounced back strongly in early 2024. The All Share Price Index (ASPI) jumped by 15%. This surge shows growing investor trust in the country’s economic stability.

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) saw busy trading days. Daily turnover ranged from Rs. 3.3 billion to Rs. 5.3 billion. Nine straight positive sessions highlighted the market’s strong performance.

The blue-chip S&P SL20 index also grew, rising 2.41% to 2,794.15 points. Better-than-expected company earnings fueled this growth. The nation’s economy looks promising, with GDP growth predicted to hit 2-3% by year-end.

Offboard deals on specific stocks made up 15% of total turnover. These deals involved companies like Watawala Plantations and Commercial Bank of Ceylon. This shows strong investor interest in these firms.

The bull market proves Sri Lanka’s economic resilience. It’s attracting both local and foreign investors. As the rally continues, it’s expected to boost overall economic growth.

Stock Market Recovers, ASPI Gains 15% in First Half of 2024

The Sri Lankan stock market has shown impressive growth in 2024’s first half. The All-Share Price Index (ASPI) jumped 15%, while the S&P 20 rose 19%. Lower inflation rates and interest rates have boosted investor confidence.

Inflation Eases and Interest Rates Decline, Boosting Investor Confidence

Falling inflation and interest rates have fueled the stock market’s recovery. Investors now feel more optimistic about listed companies’ future. Quarterly interest costs for core companies have dropped significantly since 2020.

Foreign Inflows Contribute to Market Rally

Foreign portfolio investment has driven the market rally. As the economy improves, foreign investors have become net buyers. Completing external debt restructuring is vital for market sentiment.

Sticking to the IMF reform program is crucial for sustained growth. Any deviation may create uncertainty and discourage foreign investor participation.

Key Sectors Like Capital Goods and Diversified Financials Lead the Surge

Capital Goods and Diversified Financials sectors are leading the market recovery. These companies have reported strong earnings growth and improved profitability. The banking sector is expected to see a re-rating.

Core earnings will be driven by loan growth amid positive GDP expectations. Non-Banking Financial Institutions should benefit from the current declining interest rate cycle.

Sector	Allocation
Banks/NBFI	30%
Conglomerates	25%
Manufacturing	20%
Consumer	15%
Leisure	10%

Increased trading volume and investor participation have supported market growth. Small to mid-cap companies may outperform large caps due to falling fixed-income yields. CSE earnings are expected to grow by 15.0% in 2024.

The ASPI target is set at 13,800 levels by year-end. The Sri Lankan stock market is ready for further growth and recovery.

Factors Driving the Bull Market

Sri Lanka’s stock market bull run stems from improved economic outlook and investor sentiment. Successful debt restructuring talks led to an IMF agreement for a $2.90 billion Extended Fund Facility. This boosted investor confidence, showing the government’s commitment to economic reforms.

Government reforms and the IMF program have stabilized the macroeconomic environment. Inflation dropped to about 35% in April 2023 from over 70%. Market-based pricing for fuel and cooking gas has aided the economic turnaround.

Sri Lanka has made progress in overcoming its economic crisis. The tourism sector’s rebound has been a key factor in 2023’s economic growth.

Lower Inflation and Interest Rates Spark Multiple Expansion for Equities

Falling inflation and interest rates have fueled the Sri Lankan stock market bull run. Inflation is expected to hit single digits by Q3 2023. This has made investors more optimistic about the country’s economic future.

Lower interest rates have led to higher stock prices. Investors are willing to pay more due to improved earnings visibility. The Sri Lankan Rupee gained about 10% in February 2023 alone.

Successful Debt Restructuring Negotiations Improve Economic Outlook

Debt restructuring talks have been a game-changer for Sri Lanka’s economy. Foreign debt was 55% of total debt in early 2022. The IMF agreement and fiscal plans have greatly improved the economic outlook.

This has boosted various sectors, like Financial Services and Leisure. Maldivian Resorts and Colombo Hotels have performed well. The Group’s Bunkering business has seen higher profits from fuel prices and volumes.

Government Reforms and IMF Extended Fund Facility Program Support Recovery

Government reforms and the IMF program provide a strong base for Sri Lanka’s recovery. These measures address macroeconomic imbalances and set the stage for future growth. The Group reported 17% EBITDA growth to Rs.45.74 billion despite challenges.

The Supermarket business showed resilience with 45% EBITDA growth to Rs.7.46 billion. Ongoing reforms and fiscal discipline are expected to brighten economic prospects. This provides a solid foundation for the continuing bull market in Sri Lankan stocks.